The North Bay is facing stagnant population growth in coming decades and limited housing development until the profitability of construction changes.
And the region’s lack of population growth and persistent high housing costs complicate growth in the local economy and keeping workers and businesses in the region. That was the message from experts and entrepreneurs speaking at the Business Journal’s 2025 Economic Outlook Summit, held Thursday at Sonoma State University’s ballroom in Rohnert Park.
Robert Eyler, professor of economics at Sonoma State University and president of Economic Forensics and Analytics Inc., provided a deep dive into how the national economy is affecting California and local counties.
The aging population in Marin and Sonoma counties is one of the North Bay’s most pressing issues.
“We are among the oldest counties in California, which poses significant challenges for workforce development and economic growth,” Eyler told the audience of a few hundred.
The moderator for the summit’s first panel, Zachary Kushel, noted what it means to the local economy that Sonoma County has the oldest average population for a California county with over 450,000 residents, and Marin County, for a county with over 250,000.
“We need to attract more 18- to 35-year-olds to this community, because demographics are destiny,” said Kushel, founder and managing partner of Marin Sonoma Impact Ventures. “And if we don’t fix this challenge, that has great ramifications for things like workforce, our tax base, et cetera, pushing forward.”
The slow pace of job creation in the North Bay is another concern.
“We’re experiencing poor levels of net new job creation, compared to other Bay Area counties,” Eyler said. He noted what’s been happening since 2019, before the pandemic:
- Sonoma County (1% job growth since 2019, but down 0.2% from 2023): The number of employed has rebounded from the pandemic, but there hasn’t been much expansion. Annual job growth is similar to the statewide average.
- Solano County (+1%, +2.2%): More job growth and expansion than the other North Bay counties.
- Marin County (+1.7%, -1.9%): Job growth declined over the past five years, though it picked up slightly last year.
- Napa County (0%, +3.6%): Relatively flat job growth.
- Mendocino County (+2.5%, +2.3%): Slower job growth compared to the other counties and the state.
This sluggish growth could hinder the region’s ability to attract and retain younger workers, exacerbating the demographic challenges.
On a more positive note, Eyler highlighted job growth in certain sectors.
“Health care, transportation and warehousing, and construction have been the primary growth sectors in the region,” he said.
These industries may offer opportunities for economic diversification and job creation.
The housing market in the North Bay presents a mixed picture. While median home prices have grown significantly in the past couple of years in most North Bay counties, they’ve barely change from five years ago.
Eyler cautioned that “the rate of new housing construction is expected to slow down,” as the economics of market-rate housing make building more homes less profitable. This trend could further complicate efforts to attract younger workers and families to the region.