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Economic Outlook for 2026 Indicates North Bay at a Crossroads: Economist Robert Eyler Warns of Stagnation, Structural Shifts, Uneven Paths Forward

The North Bay economy is undergoing a profound transition marked by stalled job growth, shifting demographics, housing market stagnation and aĀ wine industry facing long-term restructuring. While the challenges are significant, a noted local economist said opportunities remain — if regional leaders understand the depth of the changes underway and respond with coordinated, realistic strategies. Robert Eyler, an economics professor at Sonoma State University and president of Economic Forensics and Analytics, presented his analysis. Using county-level data, statewide and national trends, he described an economy that is no longer behaving as Californians have historically expected, particularly in regions once seen as beneficiaries of pandemic-era migration. Unprecedented jobs plateau. One of the most striking indicators Eyler presented was California’s prolonged lack of job growth. ā€œWe’ve seen about a 24-month period in which we had zero jobs growth in California, which is unprecedented in the recorded history of California’s economy outside of recession,ā€ he said. cross the North Bay, that stagnation shows up in different ways. Sonoma and Marin counties remain below their pre-pandemic labor force levels. Napa County has posted modest gains, while Mendocino County has remained largely flat. ā€œThe Bay Area and California economies showed encouraging signs of labor market stabilization in November,ā€ Anderson told the news outlet.

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Marin IJ: Marin Transit Adopts Bus Yard Environmental Assessment, Takes a Major Step Forward and Satisfies CEQA Requirements at a Former Auto Dealership at 1075 Francisco Blvd. in San Rafael for a Bus Storage lot for Marin Transit

A former auto dealership property

Marin Transit’s plan to construct an electric bus yard in San Rafael has taken a major step forward. The board governing the agency voted Monday to adopt a study that satisfies requirements set by the California Environmental Quality Act. The adoption was needed for Marin Transit to advance the plan at 1075 Francisco Blvd. East, a 3.5-acre property in the Canal neighborhood. Board member Maribeth Bushey, who sits on the San Rafael City Council, said city officials still have reservations. ā€œThe city of San Rafael remains concerned and impacted by the decision to remove this site, this freeway frontage site, from its potential to be a high tax-generating site for the city of San Rafael,ā€ Bushey said. ā€œThis has implications for our general plan as well as, most pointedly, for our general fund.ā€

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On January 12, City Council Considers Reapproving Bayfront Terrace Project With a Modified Project Footprint for the Site of 1.60 acres & No Additional Changes to the Design – Hearing is at 5:30pm at City Hall

On January 12, City Council Considers Reapproving Bayfront Terrace Project With a Modified Project Footprint for the Site of 1.60 acres & No Additional Changes to the Design – Hearing is at 5:30pm at City Hall. In a previous post, ā€œWe have an opportunity to change the life trajectory of 44 families,ā€ Councilman Urban Carmel added. ā€œNothing can change your life trajectory more than the place you grew up in. This is really exciting and gratifying – I can’t imagine a better moment.ā€

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After a 9-Year-Hiatus, The Redwoods Is Bringing Back the Celebration of Service Awards – This Event Recognizes Individuals of all ages whose service strengthens Mill Valley and enriches the lives of our seniors

Kyle Ruth-Islas CEO, The Redwoods

As we look forward, we honor our history: after a nine-year hiatus, we are bringing back our beloved Celebration of Service Awards. Founded by Bob Canepa in 1994, this event recognizes individuals of all ages whose service strengthens Mill Valley and enriches the lives of our seniors. On Sunday, April 26th at 2pm, we will proudly revive this tradition, once again free and open to the public. We hope you’ll join us as we recognize community members in five categories: youth service, adult service, resident service, teaching excellence, and public safety.

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Marin IJ: With Golden Gate Village Renovations Moving Forward, Renovations of 88 residences in 14 Buildings at the Public Housing Complex Opens Up Opens Door to Trade Union Jobs

Golden Gate Village - Trade

ā€œI live in the community,ā€ said Juanita Douglas, executive director of Tradeswomen. ā€œOnce we realized this revitalization program was coming, I thought the local community should be allowed to work on it.ā€ Douglas applied and received a grant from Burbank Housing, the Marin Housing Authority redevelopment partner, to offer the pre-apprenticeship training her organization pioneered in 1979. Her team surveyed Marin City residents and received a strong response, including from an unusually high percentage of women.

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On the Heels of Marin County’s Largest Proposed Housing Development in Years, Spirit Residential Group, Also in Strawberry, Eyes a 150,655-square-foot building on a 6.6-acre parcel at 70 North Knoll Road

70NKnolL_rendering – Project rendering from plans titled Spirit Living Group Senior Housing prepared by Trachtenberg Architects, August 7, 2025.

The 127-acre project at 201 Seminary Drive would transform the site into a mixed-use development with 336 single- and multifamily residential units — including 70 affordable units — and a 150-unit senior residential-care facility. The project also includes a 17,000-square-foot fitness center and a 3,000-square-foot preschool, both open to the public. While more than 70% of the campus would remain as open space, athletic fields, paths and plazas, the project would add about 530 new residents and about 250 new workers. Developer North Coast Land Holdings LLC also proposes maintaining the academic campus for up to 1,000 students under an existing 1953 conditional use permit.

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Whether It Be Immersive Beauty Indoors or Outdoors, Art is Deep in the 94941 – Let’s Connect With Our Abundance of Creativity and spread More Art, Murals and More in 2026!!

When people think of murals, they often picture large public artworks on commercial buildings—and Mill Valley has a few. But with Mill Valley Murals, co-founders Alex Fong and Lynsey Vera, are expanding that vision, bringing vibrant, personalized art not only to businesses but to homes as well. A local artist and mom, Lynsey’s public works include familiar local favorites such as the red-tailed hawk at BooKoo, the Tam Valley meets Palm Springs scene at the B-Lounge/Tam Junction, and the cool birds of Upside Coffee. Beyond public spaces, Lynsey has also created many private murals in homes across the community—building lasting friendships with neighbors while delivering one-of-a-kind works of art that are as unique as the people who live there.

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Marin-Based Professional Photographer Michelle Susoev Was Presented with the 20th Annual Black and White Spider Awards First Place in the Category of Portrait at a Photo photo Show Earlier This Month!

portrait award

Professional photographer Michelle Susoev of Marin County, United States was presented with the 20th Annual Black and White Spider Awards First Place in the category of Portrait at a prestigious Nomination & Winners photo show that streamed Saturday, December 6, 2025. The Photo Show will remain on rotation until December 21 and Michelle’s winning work will be showcased on the walls of the virtual winners gallery opening December 21. The live online gala was attended by industry leaders and the photography community from around the globe who logged on to watch the climax of the world’s premier event for black and white photography.

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After Years of Wrangling, Public Comment Opens on Marin County’s Largest Housing Development Project in Yearsā€˜, Moving Forward Amid Likely Neighbor Pushback in Strawberry

housing development project

The 127-acre project at 201 Seminary Drive would transform the site into a mixed-use development with 336 single- and multifamily residential units — including 70 affordable units — and a 150-unit senior residential-care facility. The project also includes a 17,000-square-foot fitness center and a 3,000-square-foot preschool, both open to the public. While more than 70% of the campus would remain as open space, athletic fields, paths and plazas, the project would add about 530 new residents and about 250 new workers. Developer North Coast Land Holdings LLC also proposes maintaining the academic campus for up to 1,000 students under an existing 1953 conditional use permit.

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Marin IJ: Marin Officials Question Projections in Regional Growth Plan – Draft Plan Bay Area 2050+

Draft Plan Bay Area 2050+

While the number of Marin households is projected to grow from 108,000 to 131,000 by 2050, the job growth is projected to be stagnant, with a job base remaining at 126,000 over the same time period, the plan says. Across the region, the plan anticipates a population growth of about 7.7 million to 9.6 million, which is nearly four times the forecast provided by the California Department of Finance. Mill Valley Mayor Max Perrey said city officials agree that MTC and ABAG need to revise their projections and develop better mitigations to address impacts to wildfire risk, water supply, emergency services, air quality and flooding, among other issues. ā€œThe regional growth forecast the plan relies on differs from the state’s official projections, and it doesn’t take into account the changing economy, both the impact that AI will have on the workforce as well as vacancy rates for commercial space, which continues to persist,ā€ Perrey said. ā€œIt also has a large dependence on major future funding streams that have not been secured for projects, which presents funding risks for infrastructure, for services and hazard mitigation measures.ā€

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