Mill Valley’s Commute is the Shortest It’s Been in Decades. Here’s why you aren’t seeing it on local roads.

What’s happening: Mill Valley’s mean commute time fell to 24.8 minutes in 2024, the lowest figure in at least four decades of Census data, according to a Metropolitan Transportation Commission compilation of records going back to 1980.

U.S. Census Bureau data collected since 2019 shows most of the recent drop happened in a single step. The commute held in the low-to-mid 30s from 2019 through 2022, then fell 19.5% in the Bureau’s next estimate, from 31.3 minutes to 25.2.

In that same one-year window, Sausalito’s commute barely moved (down 0.3%), Tiburon’s held flat, and Tamalpais-Homestead Valley fell 7.4%, all smaller shifts than Mill Valley’s, per the same Census tables. Mill Valley now sits below the Marin County average for the first time in six years of Census estimates, after running above it every year before.

The likely driver: Nearly 40% of Mill Valley residents now work from home, per the Census Bureau’s 2024 estimate, well above Marin County’s 30.8% and the nine-county Bay Area’s 25.1%. This isn’t unique to Mill Valley. Marin County’s remote-work rate more than doubled between 2019 and 2024, from 12.2% to 30.8%, and the Bay Area’s rate quadrupled, from 6.3% to 25.1%, per the same Census data.

What’s happening: Mill Valley’s mean commute time fell to 24.8 minutes in 2024, the lowest figure in at least four decades of Census data, according to a Metropolitan Transportation Commission compilation of records going back to 1980.

If work-from-home is climbing everywhere and there are simply fewer cars on the road overall, the drive could plausibly get faster for whoever’s still making it, independent of anything specific to Mill Valley.

The local reality: The city’s own traffic data doesn’t clearly back that theory up, even where the city has made real progress. Adaptive traffic signals activated last November on East Blithedale Avenue cut midday travel times by roughly 13.6% eastbound and 11.6% westbound, and weekend times by about 8% in both directions, according to a February evaluation by the engineering firm Kimley-Horn.

But afternoon eastbound travel toward Highway 101 between 3 and 6pm, the peak outbound period, got 4.3% worse over the same comparison period, the same evaluation found. Zooming out further, the city’s 13-year Traffic Report Card, tracking travel times on a 1.5-mile stretch of East Blithedale, shows no consistent direction at all.

Councilmember Urban Carmel told the Briefing that 2015/16 was the worst year on record and 2023/24 one of the best, with no clear pattern in between, and the most recent reading available lands close to the 13-year median, not evidence of easing. (Read more: East Blithedale’s traffic problem is bigger than its signals) Whatever is behind the citywide drop in commute time, it isn’t showing up as lighter local traffic.

The explanation: The falling average describes Mill Valley residents. It doesn’t describe the people who work here. Census data tracks that population separately, and their experience looks different.

The likely driver: Nearly 40% of Mill Valley residents now work from home, per the Census Bureau’s 2024 estimate, well above Marin County’s 30.8% and the nine-county Bay Area’s 25.1%. This isn’t unique to Mill Valley. Marin County’s remote-work rate more than doubled between 2019 and 2024, from 12.2% to 30.8%, and the Bay Area’s rate quadrupled, from 6.3% to 25.1%, per the same Census data.

If work-from-home is climbing everywhere and there are simply fewer cars on the road overall, the drive could plausibly get faster for whoever’s still making it, independent of anything specific to Mill Valley.

The local reality: The city’s own traffic data doesn’t clearly back that theory up, even where the city has made real progress. Adaptive traffic signals activated last November on East Blithedale Avenue cut midday travel times by roughly 13.6% eastbound and 11.6% westbound, and weekend times by about 8% in both directions, according to a February evaluation by the engineering firm Kimley-Horn.

But afternoon eastbound travel toward Highway 101 between 3 and 6pm, the peak outbound period, got 4.3% worse over the same comparison period, the same evaluation found. Zooming out further, the city’s 13-year Traffic Report Card, tracking travel times on a 1.5-mile stretch of East Blithedale, shows no consistent direction at all.

Councilmember Urban Carmel told the Briefing that 2015/16 was the worst year on record and 2023/24 one of the best, with no clear pattern in between, and the most recent reading available lands close to the 13-year median, not evidence of easing. (Read more: East Blithedale’s traffic problem is bigger than its signals) Whatever is behind the citywide drop in commute time, it isn’t showing up as lighter local traffic.

The explanation: The falling average describes Mill Valley residents. It doesn’t describe the people who work here. Census data tracks that population separately, and their experience looks different.